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Yesterday's Weapons Forums • View topic - CANADIAN AND US DOLLAR

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 Post subject: CANADIAN AND US DOLLAR
PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:36 pm 
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Hi Guy's
Today in trading(20 Sept 07) the Canadian Looney and the US Green Back traded the same. The last time this happened was in 1976.
Cheers

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:37 pm 
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maybe it was a good thing i missed my fishing trip this year huh ?


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:23 pm 
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Mmmmmmmm........ musta been Kokanee Beer :D

" Union made Beer" as I remember.

When I was a teen in Montana, we lived 17 miles from Glacier Park, and from there to Waterton , we would go to bars, as the drinking age was 18 in BC and Alberta then.
Often duty free :D
We visited enough not to

What they need an Indian reservation for those tax free cigs, booze and fireworks :lol :lol

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:17 pm 
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The rise of the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar is only the tip of the iceberg in a much larger story. The value of the dollar has been declining against world currencies for some time, and has accellerated recently. Over the past few years, the value of the US Dollar has declined an average of 15% against all currencies, and 50% against the Euro.

The reasons for this decline are complex. To simplify things, both the government and the citizenry of the US spend more than they make. The government has been running up large deficits from year to year for some time, and the balance of trade deficits have been large and unrelenting. To cover both of these forms of over-spending, the US has relied on borrowing from foreign lenders to furnish the needed funds to fill the gap. In recent times, some of the underlying characteristics of the US economy have shown certain weaknesses that are starting to discourage foreign investors (lenders). For some time, these lenders have realized that the US cannot indefinitely spend more than it takes in; the realities of this credit situation have made themselves more apparent in recent months, and this in turn has accellerated the decline of the value of the US dollar as foreign investors/lenders pull back.

For a good long time, the US Dollar has been the reserve currency of the world. It has also been the currency in which the price of oil has been denominated. There has already been flight from the dollar as a reserve currency; when the Arabs get tired of losing money, they will shift the price of oil to Euros and out of US Dollars. When that happens, the price of oil in the US will be higher than ever, and the decline of the US Dollar will accellerate further.

Our current administration claims to be supportive of maintaining the value of the US Dollar, but the results of any such efforts seem to indicate the opposite. Some economic experts believe the administration sees the decline of the US Dollar as a way to demonitize, that is, reduce, the balance of payments debt. Money borrowed previously at a higher value is repaid in lower-value dollars.

During these recent months of accellerated dollar decline, we have heard the phrase, "The US benefits from this by making exports cheaper." This is in some respects true, but it certainly doesn't help the average citizen. Yes, foreign buyers are tempted to buy more US goods because they can get more with cheaper dollars as compared to their own currencies. This particularly makes raw materials more attractive to foreign buyers (as it would with any Third World country), but this doesn't provide much work to American workers. In a globalized economy where so many production jobs in the US have already migrated overseas, it doesn't leave a lot of finished goods that foreign buyers want, either. I guess it's okay for a while if you are in the software business; that will work until the next time the Chinese copy the software and offer it for 90% less than US sellers.

What does it mean to Joe Six-Pack in the US? It means a continuing decline the the standard of living in the US. A lower-valued US Dollar means we will have to pay more for the formerly cheap foreign goods that we have gotten so used to buying. It also means if you have any plans for overseas travel, you will be paying much more.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 6:47 am 
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:59 pm 
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We need to go back to the gold and silver standards so our money will actually be worth something.

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:59 am 
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Feldmarschall
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As I said in my previous post, the problem is a big story. It is complex, but there are major underlying principles.

The problem in the credit markets can be traced to overspending by the United States. Many of the dollars that build up overseas in the hands of foreign banks and investors have to find a place to go. Holders of surplus dollars understandly want their money to work for them while they hold it. Investment vehicles and interest rates in the United States have attracted lots of this money back to the United States for foreign investment purposes. Since there has been so much of it, holders of this money needed more and more places to position it to make it work for them. This in turn generated lots of money that could be lent out to borrows in the US. The more money that was available for loans, the more money got lent to less than desirable borrowers. Another factor was that lots of Americans who already had homes refinanced with some of this money, using their homes for "piggy banks" to pay for others things, some of which they really couldn't afford, and worse, to pay down credit card that got out of control. All of these people thought that the constantly increasing value of their homes would keep them ahead of the ball. Many of the sub-prime loans (money lent to people who no way could have gotten a loan 7 years ago) were made with low initial rates that had provisions for rate adjustment within a fairly short time. When the new rates go into effect, suddenly these people cannot come up with the additional $400-500 per month that their payment has gone up. The people who already owned homes and refinanced (sometimes several times) in many cases discovered that their property wasn't going up in value any more, or even declining. So, these people have a lot of debt on the books and no equity increase to look forward to in the foreseeable future.

Now the situation that I describe has happened to lots of people, but only a small percentage have defaulted so far. The problem is, it has happened enough to blow open the underlying weaknesses that have built up in lending practices over the past few years and this causes a lack of faith across the banking and investing system. Beyond that, many of these bad loans have yet to have the higher rates kick in, so there may follow many more defaults.

Remember when buying a house was a tough nut to crack? You had to have a down payment (which you had to save up for), and you had to have good credit which included a decent work history. These lending requirements have gotten lax in the past few years, but you didn't have to have a degree in economics to see that it was a temporary abberation. This kind of crazy lending was going to blow sky high and it did. Home ownership isn't a God-given right; it's something that has to be worked for. Not everyone is going to sit in his own house; some people are going to live in apartments until they die. Life isn't fair.

The problem that Et2ss mentions about inflating the money supply is one that shouldn't be overlooked. Discussion about the relative merits and weaknesses of the US Federal Reserve system would take a long time and is a subject that even the experts can never agree on.

If the population were to remain static, then we could determine what a reasonable supply of money might be and stick with it, like in the Monopoly Game. Since the population isn't static and is constantly growing, if the money supply were static, we'd run short on it. Consequently, one of the roles of the Federal Reserve is to regulate this supply of currency, and to expand it when needed. Normally, the money supply is increased gradually over time to expand with the population. The trouble comes into the picture when the Federal Reserve expands the money supply for reasons other than normal growth. Like bailing investors out of risky and/or failed ventures. Or, by trying to inflate the money supply to keep up with out of control government spending.

In our recent liquidity crisis, the Federal Reserve (and some foreign central banks) pours many millions of dollars into the money supply to take the place of money that is locked up in failed credit ventures. So, the Federal Reserve in instances like this, is really functioning outside its original role in that it is manipulating the macro-economic situation to stave off disaster. One wonders how long and how many such disasters can be staved off. Bailing out the banking world and creating printing press money may lead to no good.

Going back to some kind of monetary system based on intrinsic value like gold or silver sounds good, particularly to the kind of people who we might find reading posts on this board. People who appreciate solid values of all kinds. The problem is, in my opinion, that easy borrowing and credit in the US have not only destroyed our currency, but they have destroyed the will of our citizenry (for the most part) to live within their means. People tend to want it now; people no longer want to work and save for something and buy it outright. Easy credit (for many years) has led to inflation that has run the values of things up so high that it's rarely possible to save for things in any case.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 8:26 am 
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And then we all need to learn how to type T H E properly :lol (Thanks Admin!)

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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:48 am 
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The more money that is out there the more prices are artificially inflated.
I have seen graphs side by side that showed an amazing jump in inlation when gold was removed as the standard in the thirties. Then again in the sixties when silver was removed.

Wages do not keep with the rising cost of everything else. Sometimes credit is the only way to obtain what you need. Notice I said need not want. But you have to keep your debt managable and not give in to all your wants.

I spent eighteen years at one company and when they closed down I found myself making the wages I earned fiteen or twenty years ago.
It's not easy to save money for anything when that happens to you.

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"The great object is, that every man be armed."
- Patrick Henry

"Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself. They are the people's liberty teeth ...... firearms everywhere restrains evil interference. When firearms go, all goes..."
GEORGE WASHINGTON


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:24 pm 
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Feldmarschall
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Tenbore, I completely agree. The system that we find ourselves with now has undermined out ability to save; it promotes living by credit because cheap money (for many years) has inflated values and destroyed our currency.


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